Logo Decarbonise Decarbonise Power purchase agreements Corporate power purchase agreements Electric Vehicles Electric assets Renewable energy certificates Your decarbonisation journey Wherever you are on your business journey, and whatever your needs, you can rely on our decarbonisation expertise and energy know-how. Get in touch 01473 707160 Electricity supply Electricity supply Flex plans Fix plans New electricity connections Smart meters Consultants Business electricity As one of the UK’s largest suppliers of renewable source electricity to businesses and other organisations, we offer a range of Flex or Fix plans. Get a quote 01473 707160 EVs Electric Vehicles Fleet electrification Destination charging Workplace charging Paying for EV charging Electric Vehicles Before you install hardware or choose EVs, we help you define your needs, understand your capacity and future-proof your investment. Contact us Call 01473 632533 Insights Insights Intelligence Blog articles Reports and guides Case studies News Our insights For in-depth, expert analysis and commentary about the energy market and more, check out our content. Subscribe to our monthly newsletter to get our insights delivered straight to your inbox. Subscribe today Support Contact us Login Drax Portal Login Page My Drax Energy My Electric Vehicles Portal Get your data, online Use ‘My Drax Energy’ to check the balance on your account(s) and more. ‘My Electric Vehicles’ offers a unified view of your EVs, charge stations and related energy consumption. Get a quote Search Search Clear Intelligence / NESO forecasts adequate but lower supply margins this winter NESO forecasts adequate but lower supply margins this winter Daniel Starman 3rd July 2026 The National Energy System Operator (NESO) released its Early View of Winter Outlook 2026/27 report on 23 June. This annual report assesses the security of electricity supply from November ‘26 to March ‘27, helping industry to prepare for the winter period. NESO currently forecasts that the de-rated margin will be 5.5 GW. The de-rated margin is the expected spare electricity capacity during Average Cold Spell (ACS) peak demand after NESO has met its reserve requirements, adjusted for how likely the assets are to be available. NESO says the 5.5GW margin is ‘adequate’ and comparable to recent winters. NESO forecasts the operational surplus to be sufficient, meaning that demand is forecast to be met throughout the winter. Mid to late January is the most likely point when tight days will occur, according to NESO. It expects Great Britain (GB) to be a net importer of electricity over the winter, with prices at a premium compared to France. De-rated margin NESO expects winter 2026/27 capacity to meet demand and the reserve requirements for the period. It forecasts the margin to be 5.5 GW, which is 8.8% of the ACS peak demand. This is slightly lower than the last winter period but in line with the recent average. NESO’s predicted Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE) is below 0.1 hours per year, well below the Reliability Standard of 3 hours per year. NESO notes that these forecasts assume that Capacity Market (CM) providers meet their agreements and that forecasted demand growth will largely be offset by increased battery storage capacity, new gas power generation, and further growth in renewables. De-rated margin winter 2026/27 Source: NESO Operational surplus The figure below shows NESO’s forecasted operational surplus for winter 2026/27 and last winter. It forecasts a small increase in demand for this winter; however, it expects this will be offset by increasing generation and storage capacity. NESO expects there will be some tight days, mainly in mid and late January, that could require the use of system notices. These predictions are made based on current submissions from generators, which are likely to change before the release of the full report in October. In its 2025/26 winter review and consultation, NESO notes that actual available conventional generation was largely below what it had forecast in its outlook for much of the winter period. This was due to extended generator outages and new outages occurring once the forecast was published. It seems to expect that this was an isolated or unforecastable occurrence, as it makes no mention of it in its approach to the outlook for the upcoming winter period. Forecast operational surplus range for winter 2025/26 and 2026/27 Source: NESO International markets NESO forecasts that GB will be a net importer of electricity over the coming winter period, in line with recent years. This is primarily driven by GB wholesale prices trading at a premium to France. Flows from Belgium, Germany, Denmark, and the Netherlands will be more varied and price-responsive. NESO also anticipates French nuclear unavailability levels to be similar to last year (which is considerably lower than the five-year average), and Norwegian hydropower reservoir levels are likely to be slightly below the 10-year average, but there are currently no signs that exports to GB markets could be affected. Going forwards NESO is due to publish the full report in October this year, which will incorporate its latest demand and asset availability forecasts. NESO will continue to monitor the effects of global gas market pressures, European electricity flows, and short-term impacts of weather, system tightness, and real-time conditions. Disclaimer We’ve used all reasonable efforts to ensure that the content in this article is accurate, current, and complete at the date of publication. However, we make no express or implied representations or warranties regarding its accuracy, currency or completeness. We cannot accept any responsibility (to the extent permitted by law) for any loss arising directly or indirectly from the use of any content in this article, or any action taken in relying upon it. Subscribe to our newsletter Sign up to our monthly newsletters and get the best of Drax Insights sent directly to your inbox. First name * Last name * Email address * Job title * Industry * No selection Accomodation and food Admin and support Agriculture, forestry and fishing Arts, entertainment and recreation Construction Education Electricity, gas, steam and aircon supply Financial and insurance Human health and social work Information and communication Manufacturing Mining and quarrying Other Other service activities Professional, scientific and technical Public admin and defence Real estate Transportation and storage Water supply, sewerage and waste management Wholesale and retail Which newsletter(s) would you like to subscribe to? * Powering Perspective - Insights on energy and decarbonisation. Intelligence Monthly - Energy market news and policies impacting bills. What topics are you most interested in? * Please select one Renewable energy supply, generation and optimisation EVs and EV charging Please don’t contact me by phone, SMS, email or post regarding other Drax products and services. Subscribe today Please verify Captcha Daniel Starman Sales Energy Market Lead Intelligence Energy supply Industry Renewable energy supply Related articles 1st July 2026 Government must implement faster transition to electrification: CCC On 24 June the Climate Change Committee (CCC) published its annual Progress in reduction emission 2026 report to Parliament, providing its assessment on the... Explore this topic 11th December 2025 2026 TNUoS costs set to increase, but by less than feared, after Ofgem confirms RIIO-ET3 Final Determinations Ofgem published its Final Determinations (FDs) on the costs for onshore electricity transmission owners (ONTOs) on 4 December. These costs reflect how much ONTOs... Explore this topic 7th May 2026 Flexibility Focus: key insights from Q1 2026 The first quarter of 2026 has been one of significant geopolitical, regulatory and market developments, as well as updates to ancillary services. The National... Explore this topic Contact us Why Drax? Insights Support Drax Group Terms and conditions My Drax Energy Useful documents & links Consultants Privacy notices Cookie policy Gender Pay Gap Modern Slavery Act Complaints Emergency contact ISO 9001 certification Careers ISO 45001 certification Contact us Email us: energyservices@drax.com Get in touch now Follow us LinkedIn YouTube Drax Energy Solutions Limited: registered in England and Wales, number 05893966. Registered office: Drax Power Station, Selby, North Yorkshire YO8 8PH Search Search Clear Decarbonise Decarbonise Power purchase agreements Corporate power purchase agreements Electric Vehicles Electric assets Renewable energy certificates Your decarbonisation journey Wherever you are on your business journey, and whatever your needs, you can rely on our decarbonisation expertise and energy know-how. Get in touch 01473 707160 Electricity supply Electricity supply Flex plans Fix plans New electricity connections Smart meters Consultants Business electricity As one of the UK’s largest suppliers of renewable source electricity to businesses and other organisations, we offer a range of Flex or Fix plans. Get a quote 01473 707160 EVs Electric Vehicles Fleet electrification Destination charging Workplace charging Paying for EV charging Electric Vehicles Before you install hardware or choose EVs, we help you define your needs, understand your capacity and future-proof your investment. Contact us Call 01473 632533 Insights Insights Intelligence Blog articles Reports and guides Case studies News Our insights For in-depth, expert analysis and commentary about the energy market and more, check out our content. Subscribe to our monthly newsletter to get our insights delivered straight to your inbox. Subscribe today Contact us Why Drax? Insights Support Drax Group Terms and conditions My Drax Energy Useful documents & links Consultants Privacy notices Cookie policy Gender Pay Gap Modern Slavery Act Complaints Emergency contact ISO 9001 certification Careers ISO 45001 certification Contact us Email us: energyservices@drax.com Get in touch now Follow us LinkedIn YouTube Drax Energy Solutions Limited: registered in England and Wales, number 05893966. Registered office: Drax Power Station, Selby, North Yorkshire YO8 8PH